2022 World Cup — Qatar
Prediction Retrospective
Measuring our AI's performance against the actual 2022 World Cup results. How well would ranking-based predictions have fared?
64 Matches Analyzed
56%
Overall Match Result Accuracy
Our engine predicted 36 out of 64 matches correctly
55%
Group Stage
60%
Knockout Stage
20%
Points Efficiency
Correct Results
36 / 64
56% accuracy
Exact Scores
1 / 64
2% accuracy
Champion Pick
Brazil
❌ Was Argentina
Golden Boot
Kylian Mbappé
✅ Correct!
Match by Match Breakdown
64 matches
| Round | Match | Predicted | Actual | Result | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group A | |||||
| Group A | 🇶🇦 Qatar vs Ecuador 🇪🇨 | 0-4 | 0-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group A | 🇸🇳 Senegal vs Netherlands 🇳🇱 | 0-1 | 0-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group A | 🇶🇦 Qatar vs Senegal 🇸🇳 | 0-4 | 1-3 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group A | 🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Ecuador 🇪🇨 | 4-0 | 1-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group A | 🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Qatar 🇶🇦 | 4-0 | 2-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group A | 🇪🇨 Ecuador vs Senegal 🇸🇳 | 0-4 | 1-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group B | |||||
| Group B | 🏴 England vs Iran 🇮🇷 | 1-0 | 6-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group B | 🇺🇸 USA vs Wales 🏴 | 2-1 | 1-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group B | 🏴 Wales vs Iran 🇮🇷 | 1-1 | 0-2 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group B | 🏴 England vs USA 🇺🇸 | 1-0 | 0-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group B | 🇮🇷 Iran vs USA 🇺🇸 | 1-2 | 0-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group B | 🏴 Wales vs England 🏴 | 0-1 | 0-3 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group C | |||||
| Group C | 🇦🇷 Argentina vs Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 | 4-0 | 1-2 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group C | 🇲🇽 Mexico vs Poland 🇵🇱 | 1-0 | 0-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group C | 🇦🇷 Argentina vs Mexico 🇲🇽 | 1-0 | 2-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group C | 🇵🇱 Poland vs Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 | 4-0 | 2-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group C | 🇵🇱 Poland vs Argentina 🇦🇷 | 0-1 | 0-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group C | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia vs Mexico 🇲🇽 | 0-4 | 1-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group D | |||||
| Group D | 🇩🇰 Denmark vs Tunisia 🇹🇳 | 1-0 | 0-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group D | 🇫🇷 France vs Australia 🇦🇺 | 3-0 | 4-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group D | 🇹🇳 Tunisia vs Australia 🇦🇺 | 1-0 | 0-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group D | 🇫🇷 France vs Denmark 🇩🇰 | 1-0 | 2-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group D | 🇦🇺 Australia vs Denmark 🇩🇰 | 0-2 | 1-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group D | 🇹🇳 Tunisia vs France 🇫🇷 | 0-2 | 1-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group E | |||||
| Group E | 🇩🇪 Germany vs Japan 🇯🇵 | 1-0 | 1-2 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group E | 🇪🇸 Spain vs Costa Rica 🇨🇷 | 2-0 | 7-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group E | 🇯🇵 Japan vs Costa Rica 🇨🇷 | 1-0 | 0-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group E | 🇪🇸 Spain vs Germany 🇩🇪 | 2-1 | 1-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group E | 🇯🇵 Japan vs Spain 🇪🇸 | 0-1 | 2-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group E | 🇨🇷 Costa Rica vs Germany 🇩🇪 | 0-1 | 2-4 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group F | |||||
| Group F | 🇲🇦 Morocco vs Croatia 🇭🇷 | 0-1 | 0-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group F | 🇧🇪 Belgium vs Canada 🇨🇦 | 4-0 | 1-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group F | 🇧🇪 Belgium vs Morocco 🇲🇦 | 1-0 | 0-2 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group F | 🇭🇷 Croatia vs Canada 🇨🇦 | 3-0 | 4-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group F | 🇨🇦 Canada vs Morocco 🇲🇦 | 0-2 | 1-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group F | 🇭🇷 Croatia vs Belgium 🇧🇪 | 0-1 | 0-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group G | |||||
| Group G | 🇨🇭 Switzerland vs Cameroon 🇨🇲 | 3-0 | 1-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group G | 🇧🇷 Brazil vs Serbia 🇷🇸 | 1-0 | 2-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group G | 🇨🇲 Cameroon vs Serbia 🇷🇸 | 0-3 | 3-3 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group G | 🇧🇷 Brazil vs Switzerland 🇨🇭 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 🎯 Exact! | 3 |
| Group G | 🇨🇲 Cameroon vs Brazil 🇧🇷 | 0-4 | 1-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group G | 🇷🇸 Serbia vs Switzerland 🇨🇭 | 0-1 | 2-3 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group H | |||||
| Group H | 🇺🇾 Uruguay vs South Korea 🇰🇷 | 1-0 | 0-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group H | 🇵🇹 Portugal vs Ghana 🇬🇭 | 4-0 | 3-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group H | 🇰🇷 South Korea vs Ghana 🇬🇭 | 4-0 | 2-3 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Group H | 🇵🇹 Portugal vs Uruguay 🇺🇾 | 2-1 | 2-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group H | 🇬🇭 Ghana vs Uruguay 🇺🇾 | 0-4 | 0-2 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Group H | 🇰🇷 South Korea vs Portugal 🇵🇹 | 0-1 | 2-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Round of 16 | |||||
| Round of 16 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands vs USA 🇺🇸 | 1-0 | 3-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Round of 16 | 🇦🇷 Argentina vs Australia 🇦🇺 | 3-0 | 2-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Round of 16 | 🏴 England vs Senegal 🇸🇳 | 1-0 | 3-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Round of 16 | 🇫🇷 France vs Poland 🇵🇱 | 1-0 | 3-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Round of 16 | 🇯🇵 Japan vs Croatia 🇭🇷 | 0-1 | 1-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Round of 16 | 🇧🇷 Brazil vs South Korea 🇰🇷 | 2-0 | 4-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Round of 16 | 🇲🇦 Morocco vs Spain 🇪🇸 | 0-1 | 0-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Round of 16 | 🇵🇹 Portugal vs Switzerland 🇨🇭 | 1-0 | 6-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Quarter-finals | |||||
| Quarter-finals | 🇭🇷 Croatia vs Brazil 🇧🇷 | 0-1 | 1-1 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Quarter-finals | 🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Argentina 🇦🇷 | 1-2 | 2-2 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Quarter-finals | 🏴 England vs France 🇫🇷 | 1-1 | 1-2 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Quarter-finals | 🇲🇦 Morocco vs Portugal 🇵🇹 | 0-1 | 1-0 | ❌ Wrong | 0 |
| Semi-finals | |||||
| Semi-finals | 🇦🇷 Argentina vs Croatia 🇭🇷 | 1-0 | 3-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Semi-finals | 🇫🇷 France vs Morocco 🇲🇦 | 1-0 | 2-0 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Third Place | |||||
| Third Place | 🇭🇷 Croatia vs Morocco 🇲🇦 | 1-0 | 2-1 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
| Final | |||||
| Final | 🇦🇷 Argentina vs France 🇫🇷 | 1-1 | 3-3 | ✅ Correct | 1 |
Group by Group Breakdown
Group A83% — 5/6
Predicted
1.🇳🇱Netherlands
9pts2.🇸🇳Senegal
8pts3.🇪🇨Ecuador
6pts4.🇶🇦Qatar
5ptsActual
1.🇳🇱Netherlands
7pts2.🇸🇳Senegal
6pts3.🇪🇨Ecuador
4pts4.🇶🇦Qatar
0ptsGroup B50% — 3/6
Predicted
1.🏴England
9pts2.🇺🇸USA
8pts3.🏴Wales
8pts4.🇮🇷Iran
8ptsActual
1.🏴England
7pts2.🇺🇸USA
5pts3.🇮🇷Iran
3pts4.🏴Wales
1ptsGroup C67% — 4/6
Predicted
1.🇦🇷Argentina
9pts2.🇲🇽Mexico
8pts3.🇵🇱Poland
7pts4.🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
5ptsActual
1.🇦🇷Argentina
6pts2.🇵🇱Poland
4pts3.🇲🇽Mexico
4pts4.🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
3ptsGroup D33% — 2/6
Predicted
1.🇫🇷France
9pts2.🇩🇰Denmark
8pts3.🇹🇳Tunisia
7pts4.🇦🇺Australia
6ptsActual
1.🇫🇷France
6pts2.🇦🇺Australia
6pts3.🇹🇳Tunisia
4pts4.🇩🇰Denmark
1ptsGroup E33% — 2/6
Predicted
1.🇪🇸Spain
9pts2.🇩🇪Germany
8pts3.🇯🇵Japan
7pts4.🇨🇷Costa Rica
7ptsActual
1.🇯🇵Japan
6pts2.🇪🇸Spain
4pts3.🇩🇪Germany
4pts4.🇨🇷Costa Rica
3ptsGroup F57% — 4/7
Predicted
1.🇧🇪Belgium
9pts2.🇭🇷Croatia
8pts3.🇲🇦Morocco
7pts4.🇨🇦Canada
6ptsActual
1.🇲🇦Morocco
7pts2.🇭🇷Croatia
5pts3.🇧🇪Belgium
4pts4.🇨🇦Canada
0ptsGroup G67% — 4/6
Predicted
1.🇧🇷Brazil
9pts2.🇨🇭Switzerland
8pts3.🇷🇸Serbia
7pts4.🇨🇲Cameroon
6ptsActual
1.🇧🇷Brazil
6pts2.🇨🇭Switzerland
6pts3.🇨🇲Cameroon
4pts4.🇷🇸Serbia
1ptsGroup H50% — 3/6
Predicted
1.🇵🇹Portugal
8pts2.🇺🇾Uruguay
8pts3.🇰🇷South Korea
7pts4.🇬🇭Ghana
4ptsActual
1.🇵🇹Portugal
6pts2.🇰🇷South Korea
4pts3.🇺🇾Uruguay
4pts4.🇬🇭Ghana
3ptsKnockout Bracket
Round of 16
R16-1
Netherlands vs USA
P: 2-0A: 3-1
R16-2
Argentina vs Australia
P: 2-0A: 2-1
R16-3
England vs Senegal
P: 2-0A: 3-0
R16-4
France vs Poland
P: 2-0A: 3-1
R16-5
Japan vs Croatia
P: 0-2A: 1-1
R16-6
Brazil vs South Korea
P: 3-0A: 4-1
R16-7
Morocco vs Spain
P: 0-2A: 0-0
R16-8
Portugal vs Switzerland
P: 2-1A: 6-1
Quarter-finals
QF-1
Netherlands vs Argentina
P: 1-2A: 2-2
QF-2
England vs France
P: 1-2A: 1-2
QF-3
Croatia vs Brazil
P: 0-2A: 1-1
QF-4
Spain vs Portugal
P: 2-1A: 0-1
Semi-finals
SF-1
Argentina vs Croatia
P: 2-0A: 3-0
SF-2
France vs Portugal
P: 2-1A: 2-0
Final
Final
Argentina vs France
P: 1-2A: 3-3
Golden Boot Race
Our Prediction
1.Kylian MbappéFra
8g
2.Lionel MessiArg
7g
3.Harry KaneEng
6g
4.Karim BenzemaFra
5g
5.NeymarBra
5g
Actual Top 5
1.Kylian MbappéFra
8g
2.Lionel MessiArg
7g
3.Julián ÁlvarezArg
4g
4.Olivier GiroudFra
4g
5.RicharlisonBra
4g
Lessons for 2026
Group Stage Upsets Are Unpredictable
Japan beating both Germany and Spain, Saudi Arabia defeating Argentina — ranking-based models can't capture these historic upsets.
Knockout Experience Matters
Morocco's run to the semi-finals and Croatia's resilience showed that tournament experience often outranks pure FIFA rankings.
Champion Prediction Needs More Factors
Brazil was ranked #1 but Argentina (ranked #3) won it all. We need form, squad depth, momentum, and tactical analysis.
Score Prediction Is Harder Than Result
Exact score prediction was only {accuracy.exactAccuracy}% accurate, but result prediction hit {accuracy.resultAccuracy}% — a solid baseline.